As President Donald Trump navigates his second term, a new NBC News Decision Desk Poll, powered by SurveyMonkey, reveals a nation sharply divided. Conducted from May 30 to June 10, 2025, with 19,410 adults nationwide, the survey shows Trump’s approval rating mired in negative territory, with 55% disapproving of his performance compared to 45% approving—a figure unchanged since April. Yet, beneath the surface, shifting sentiments among his base and independents, along with a spotlight on immigration, paint a complex picture of his presidency’s trajectory.
A Polarized Nation: Approval Ratings and Emotional Divide
Trump’s overall approval holds steady, but the poll uncovers subtle cracks in enthusiasm. The share of adults who “strongly approve” dipped slightly since April, while “strong disapproval” remains more intense, reflecting a deeper emotional divide. Among Republicans, support softened, with 5% fewer expressing strong approval, particularly among MAGA supporters, who shifted toward “somewhat approve.” Only 37% of MAGA Republicans now say they’re “thrilled” with Trump’s actions, down from 46% in April.
Democrats, by contrast, are galvanized in opposition, with 51% feeling “furious” about the administration’s moves. Independents lean heavily negative, with 65% disapproving and many expressing dissatisfaction or anger. This intensity gap could spell trouble for Republicans in low-turnout elections, like November 2025’s off-cycle races in New Jersey and Virginia, and the 2026 midterms, where energizing the base will be critical.
Immigration: Trump’s Stronghold Amid Controversy
Immigration and border security remain Trump’s strongest suit, though even here, Americans are nearly split, with 51% approving and 49% disapproving of his handling. During the poll, Trump deployed National Guard troops and Marines to Los Angeles amid protests over Immigration and Customs Enforcement actions, underscoring his focus on the issue. For MAGA supporters, immigration ranks second only to the economy, with 20% calling it their top concern compared to 9% of all Americans.
While approval on immigration held steady overall, Republicans, MAGA supporters, and independents showed slightly stronger support than in April, suggesting Trump’s rhetoric resonates with key groups. However, his immigration policies’ overlap with higher education—particularly restrictions on foreign students—drew criticism, with 56% disapproving of his university-related actions, including 42% who strongly disapprove. MAGA supporters, however, overwhelmingly back these moves, with 72% strongly approving, highlighting a stark partisan divide.
Higher Education: A Flashpoint of Debate
The poll asked about the impact of elite institutions like Harvard, which has clashed with Trump over funding and foreign student enrollment. A plurality (44%) of Americans say such universities help the country, 24% say they hurt, and 31% see no impact. Democrats (75%) champion universities’ contributions, while MAGA supporters (65%) and Republicans (53%) view them as detrimental. Independents are more neutral, with 46% seeing no difference and 42% crediting universities positively.
Struggles on Tariffs, Inflation, and DOGE
Trump faces headwinds on other signature initiatives. His tariff policies, a cornerstone of his economic agenda, are unpopular, with 60% disapproving and 51% believing tariffs will worsen their personal finances. Cost of living and inflation fare worse, with 61% disapproval, reflecting lukewarm economic sentiment: 45% say their finances are unchanged from last year, 34% worse, and 21% better.
The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by Elon Musk, also lost ground. Only 44% rate it a success or partial success, down from 47% in April, while 56% see it as a failure. Even MAGA supporters’ enthusiasm waned, with 49% calling it a success compared to 66% in April, amid a public spat between Trump and Musk, who labeled GOP spending plans a “disgusting abomination.”
GOP Fractures Over Tax and Spending Plan
As Congress crafts a Trump-backed tax and spending bill, the poll exposes Republican divisions. Americans narrowly prioritize maintaining spending on programs like Medicaid (51%) over GOP goals like reducing the national debt (40% of Republicans) or extending 2017 tax cuts (39% of Republicans). Democrats (79%) and independents (53%) strongly favor preserving spending, complicating GOP efforts to unify their slim 53-seat Senate majority behind the legislation, targeted for passage by July.
Economic Outlook: Steady but Uncertain
With inflation stable in May, the economic impact of Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs remains unclear. Most Americans now expect tariffs to leave their finances “about the same,” a slight shift from April’s pessimism. Yet, persistent economic concerns underscore the challenge Trump faces in translating policy into tangible gains for voters.
Why It Matters
Trump’s second term is at a crossroads, with immigration bolstering his base but failing to bridge broader divides. Waning enthusiasm among MAGA supporters and strong opposition from Democrats and independents signal challenges ahead, especially as Republicans navigate internal rifts over fiscal priorities. With off-cycle elections looming and midterms on the horizon, Trump’s ability to reignite his base while addressing economic unease will shape his legacy and the GOP’s future.
